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Publish date. 11-03-2010   Number of images. 2

Japan economy grows less than expected

Financial Times | TOKYO, March 11 - Japan's economy grew less than initially estimated in the fourth quarter and the deflator hit a record negative reading, ...

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The recent $56B increase in the borrowing limits for the foreign exchange special account indicates to me that intervention is a distinct possibility. The Bank of Japan has done it before, they will do it again. Sovereign risk, as measured by CDS rates, remains among the highest in the G-7 (recently 63 bps, compared to the US at 48 bps, Germany at 34 bps and France at 43 bps; source: Markit), only recently being eclipsed by the UK. This is probably a result of the absolutely huge public debt that Japan has forecast to exceed 225% of GDP by the end of this year. In a similar measure, Standard and Poor's recently downgraded the outlook from stable to negative. While Japan’s debt still carries an AAA rating, the UK is the only other G-7 country with a negative outlook. The long term macro view is hardly any better.
The recent $56B increase in the borrowing limits for the foreign exchange special account indicates to me that intervention is a distinct possibility. The Bank of Japan has done it before, they will do it again. Sovereign risk, as measured by CDS rates, remains among the highest in the G-7 (recently 63 bps, compared to the US at 48 bps, Germany at 34 bps and France at 43 bps; source: Markit), only recently being eclipsed by the UK. This is probably a result of the absolutely huge public debt that Japan has forecast to exceed 225% of GDP by the end of this year. In a similar measure, Standard and Poor's recently downgraded the outlook from stable to negative. While Japan’s debt still carries an AAA rating, the UK is the only other G-7 country with a negative outlook. The long term macro view is hardly any better.... Open »
Japan economy grows less than expected
 
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